Apple’s Indian Ascent: Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Indian-made iPhones will account for up to 25% of global shipments by 2024

Apple is progressively shifting its smartphone production to India, with projections indicating a significant impact on global iPhone shipments. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo anticipates that iPhones manufactured in India will constitute 12-14% of worldwide shipments in 2023, a figure expected to escalate further in the subsequent year.

Under optimistic conditions, Kuo envisions Apple elevating the share of Indian-made iPhone shipments to an impressive 20-25% of the global volume in 2024. This aligns with a previous JPMorgan forecast, indicating that Apple could potentially shift 25% of its total iPhone production to India by 2025.

Foxconn currently dominates 75-80% of iPhone production capacity in India, but Kuo foresees a shift with Indian conglomerate Tata Group entering the scene through Wistron’s production line. Notably, Kuo predicts Apple’s groundbreaking move of initiating mass production of the standard iPhone 17 in India, marking the first time a new iPhone model undergoes production development outside of China. The choice, according to Kuo, is driven by the model’s less complex design, minimizing potential risks.

As Apple expands its iPhone production footprint in India, a consequential decline in output from Chinese factories is expected. Kuo estimates that by 2024, Foxconn’s production capacity in Zhengzhou and Taiyuan, China, will contract by 35-45% and 75-85%, respectively.

Beyond manufacturing considerations, Kuo emphasizes the strategic advantages of this shift for Apple in fostering a stronger relationship with the Indian government. This maneuver is poised to bolster iPhone sales and overall Apple product adoption in the burgeoning Indian market. Apple’s calculated move toward localization aligns with broader industry trends and underscores the company’s commitment to diversifying its production landscape for sustained global growth.