BYD Challenges Tesla for Electric Car Sales Crown in 2024, TrendForce Forecasts

TrendForce’s latest analysis reveals that global sales of NEVs (New Energy Vehicles), comprising BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles), PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles), and FCVs (Fuel Cell Vehicles), are projected to hit 13.03 million units in 2023, marking a growth rate of 29.8%. This growth, while robust, represents a slowdown from the impressive 54.2% surge witnessed in 2022. Notably, BEVs account for 9.11 million units, growing at a rate of 24%, while PHEVs reach 3.91 million units, boasting a more substantial growth rate of 45%.

China continues to lead as the largest NEV market globally, commanding approximately 60% of the market share. However, growth in the Chinese market is showing signs of tapering off due to the high base effect. Moreover, limited sales growth in other regions fails to compensate for the deceleration in China. Consequently, NEV sales growth is expected to moderate, with an estimated 16.87 million units projected to be sold in 2024, accompanied by a growth rate of 29.5%.

In the BEV segment, Tesla maintains its stronghold in 2023 with a market share of 19.9%. However, BYD emerges as a formidable challenger, narrowing the sales gap with Tesla to a mere 248,000 units. This remarkable feat is attributed to BYD’s consistent performance in China and its expanding international footprint bolstered by the activation of overseas bases. TrendForce asserts that BYD possesses the potential to mount a serious challenge to Tesla’s dominance in the BEV market for the current year.

GAC Aion secures the third position for the first time, while SAIC-GM-Wuling and Volkswagen slip to fourth and fifth place respectively. Luxury automakers BMW and Mercedes-Benz intensify their efforts in electrification, securing sixth and eighth places respectively. Meanwhile, Hyundai Group, comprising Hyundai and KIA, maintains their positions thanks to sustained sales growth.

BYD and Li Auto emerge as the top two players in the PHEV market, with Li Auto posting an impressive 182% growth rate in 2023. Li Auto’s rapid market share growth is fueled by its strategic focus on mid-size and large SUVs, targeting family-oriented consumers. Traditional stalwarts BMW and Mercedes-Benz occupy the third to fifth spots, albeit facing declines in Europe due to sluggish PHEV sales.

Jeep experiences a notable 33% surge, climbing to sixth place. Furthermore, Chinese brands such as Changan, Denza, and Deepal debut in the top ten rankings, underscoring the competitive edge of the Chinese market. TrendForce anticipates that as Chinese brands accelerate PHEV exports, established automakers will encounter heightened pressure on growth margins.

As China’s domestic growth slows, automakers are increasingly establishing overseas bases, diversifying their production sites. TrendForce highlights Chinese brands’ significant advantages in vehicle diversity, pricing, and smart features. Overcoming challenges associated with reliance on a single production site is crucial for sustained growth. However, the potential escalation of trade barriers may impede the global spread of Chinese NEVs.

In the U.S., a ban on Chinese-made battery components effective from 2024 threatens the eligibility of many EV models for subsidies. While automakers like GM offer equivalent federal tax credits of $7,500, disruptions in the Chinese supply chain hinder efforts to drive down EV prices, posing additional challenges for the industry.

Source: TrendForce